Torrey Pines beach faces risks from rising tides - SignOnSanDiego.com
Torrey Pines beaches – among the most popular sections of county coastline – would suffer from fewer visitors and major infrastructure damage if the oceans rise as scientists predict, according to a study released Tuesday about the costs of sea-level rise along California's shores.
Economists from San Francisco State University looked at five coastal areas to gauge the impact of higher water levels that are expected as the oceans warm, expand and climb higher onto land. At Torrey Pines, they projected an average of about $1 million a year in reduced tourism spending and a total of about $350 million in damage to roads and railways from erosion and other forces by 2100.
The researchers also assessed how sea-level rise at Ocean Beach in San Francisco County; Venice Beach and Malibu beaches in Los Angeles County; and Carpinteria beaches in Santa Barbara County. They said the study should be used to plan for adapting to the effects of climate change.
Funded by the California Department of Boating and Waterways, the researchers examined the costs of coastal storm damage and erosion, both of which are expected to increase as sea levels rise. In addition, they predicted the economic impact of sea level rise on tourism and natural habitats as beaches that have been narrowed by erosion lose their appeal to visitors and their ability to sustain wildlife.
"Sea level rise will send reverberations throughout local and state economies," said Philip King, a co-author and economics professor at San Francisco State. "We also found that the economic risks and responses to a changing coastline will vary greatly over time and from beach to beach."
If sea levels rise 4.6 feet by 2100, the latest report shows that Torrey Pines city and state beaches could lose:
• $5 million in damages caused by a 100-year coastal flood, including damage to cars and roads
• $99 million in tourism spending and local and state tax revenue losses (accumulated between now and 2100) caused by a narrower, eroded beach attracting fewer paying visitors
• $20.2 million in habitat and recreation losses caused by erosion significantly reducing the beach area
• $348.7 million caused by land, road and railway lines being lost or damaged by erosion and subsidence, including damage to the Los Angeles-San Diego-San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor
While some skeptics doubt the idea of significant sea level increases, scientists and government officials across the country take the issue seriously.
A recent paper by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography said complex interactions of air and water currents have held sea-level rise along the West Coast far below the global average in recent decades. It said signs point to a major shift in ocean dynamics that is expected to reduce the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters off the coast. If that happens, waters stuck near the surface are expected to heat, expand and creep higher onto land more like they have elsewhere.
Local governments in San Diego County are among the most aggressive in the country when it comes to preparing for higher seas, which are predicted to rise up to 18 inches by 2050 compared to the 20th century. Worst-case scenarios for 2100 show a much more dramatic increase of about 60 inches, forcing local officials to consider strategic retreats from the coast in places, more shoreline defenses in spots and altering infrastructure in other areas.
Mike Lee: mike.lee@uniontrib.com; (619)293-2034; Follow on Twitter @sdutlee
14 Sep, 2011--
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