The Dallas Cowboys Travel to the New England Patriots - isportsweb.com
Coming off a bye week Dallas is sitting third in their division just ahead of the dream team. They are 8th overall in the conference and one quarter of the season is gone. They are coming off a much needed bye week and have several dinged up key players ready to get back into the lineup. The fact that Dallas was able to win two games while being so depleted and with a new defense is actually a good thing. However the difference will come in the game this week, win and you can start raising your playoff expectations, lose and it will be what everyone expects.
The odds are really stacked against Dallas. New England, with Tom Brady as the starter, has not lost a home regular season game in ages. They have the top ranked offense in the league and a multitude of weapons. Finally, The Patriots have years of consistency behind them. They have a knack of winning and regardless if it is legal or not, they have had greater success than Dallas has. As Marcus Spears said jokingly, "we should not even show up because the Patriots have already won".
Injuries – (not a complete list)
The Cowboys –
- G Derrick Docerky, DT Jason Hatcher, and FB Tony Fiammetta - are all out and won't play.
The New England Patriots – Josh Barrett is the only one of concern that will be out.
So why even play
Miles Austin could be the key link in this game.
The Patriots are clear favorites and looking at all the statistics there is almost no reason for Dallas to even show up. Tony Romo is no Tom Brady and the Dallas running game pales in comparison to the Patriots. Add in the fact that Dallas has a way of beating themselves with playing in Foxborough and you could have a recipe for disaster.
For Dallas the bye week came at a great time. This game could be the first game all season where Dallas has their fullest starting lineup, missing only one starter. So teams have not seen the full Dallas offense in action. That can play into Dallas' hands but the Patriots have a great camera staff so this could be easily nullified. The Patriots defense is one of the worst in the league and this could help the Dallas offense to keep up with the New England Offense. However here too Dallas has to be certain they put 7 on the board every chance they get and not just get field goals.
One item that is a big talk is how Rob Ryan shut down the Patriots to beat them while he was at Cleveland. Ok so he was able to put together a defensive plan and help win that game. While that makes a good resume bullet, it does not guarantee future success. Don't count on Ryan to be the factor in this game, but don't be shocked if he is either.
Game plans
The Patriots will probably look to exploit the Dallas linebackers and secondary. I am sure the Patriots will look to pass frequently and often, but make it a short passing game. They should hit running backs and the slot receivers to get big gains after the catch. This will set up the running game and deep shots downfield. To counter this Dallas will need to put pressure on Tom Brady, shut down the running game, and play near error free defense. This means that Spencer will need to beat rookie tackle consistently to free up Ware for his show. The Dallas defense will have to play near perfect football to win the game as the offense and special teams don't have the ability to win it.
On Defense the Patriots have two goals, get Romo to mess up and let Dallas into the red zone. If they can get Romo to turn the ball over then this game will be over quickly. Romo has had a lot of pressure on him and if the Patriots can rattle him early it could lead to turnovers later. Dallas does not have a strong running game. The lack of that strong running game leads to poor red zone production and them being the second worst rush scoring team in the league. This will be the matchup to watch and where the game will be won or lost. For Dallas to win this game they will have to over perform on offense. Yes the Patriot's D is one of the worst in the league, but Dallas is 12th in the league in scoring. To match the second best scoring team in the league they will have to score every chance they get and they will have to find a running game.
Prediction
In their only loss this season the Patriots outperformed the Bills in almost every statistical category save two, turnovers and the scoreboard. The Bills won the turnover battle 4 to 2. Not only will Dallas need to do that, but they will have to be 100% in the red zone. Since everyone is picking the Patriots this is the perfect set up for Dallas to pull out the win. When Ryan stopped New England in 2010 he did it by creating turnovers and keeping them out of the end zone. Personally I don't think he will have as much success as last time, but I do anticipate an upset. Dallas 38 New England 27.
Fantasy Focus
- Tony Romo – he should have a career day with Miles, and Bryant healthy and a weak Ne matchup.
- Felix Jones – I would like to say this is the day Felix Jones breaks loose because Dallas really needs the running game to work. While I think it's a good possibility, I would not bank on winning my league by starting him. He should get you some good points, but I suspect this might be the week we see Murray take flight, if he will at all this season.
- Dallas WR's – With the receiving core healthy, Dallas should have a healthy offensive attack. The Patriots cannot cover all of them, Miles, Dez, Witten, and new target Laurent Robinson could cause havoc on the Patriots and Dallas will have to pass to win. If you think Dallas will run the ball to win, then don't start any receivers. I think one will have a great game, if not more.
- Dallas D/ST – I expect Dallas to get some pressure on Brady. He has been pressured a lot this season and Dallas will need turnovers to win. However if they slip up or Romo turns the ball over too much then you could lose a lot of points from the Pats scoring too much. I would start then with caution.
- Pats – I would never sit Brady, or Welker. Start others as you see fit.
Wild West or Patriotism
Once again Dallas will visit the Northeast in a matchup they should not win and once again Tony Romo will have his opportunity to be the goat or gloat of the NFL. This too will be Rob Ryan's opportunity to audition for his head coaching gig. This game will truly set the tone for the rest of the season. A win will surly make fans and media a like start to have hope that Dallas can make a run this season. A blowout loss only means that Dallas is what they are, rebuilding. A close loss and the frustration of the season will come down on the house of Dallas. Problem is I suspect an upset, and it could easily be obtained.
16 Oct, 2011--
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